The Unstable Punjab Tripod
Imagine if one leg of a tripod stand would be sufficient to support a tripod. Such an anomaly!!!
India is the largest democracy in the world where each of the 28 states have different political dynamics existing. The 3 way contest between Congress, BJP and AAP is defining the new state of Indian politics which is envisioned to become the national trend as well in the near future. Punjab is a state that is known for heavy anti-incumbency irrespective of the development or progress that is made. This has resulted in both BJP and Congress taking the spoils across decades in Punjab. The anti-incumbency has played a positive effect in the party policies when trying to woo the voters.
To give a present day account, Punjab is governed by the Congress government with an overwhelming majority. Yes, Congress still rules in India in a few states (1–2) with Punjab being the shining light in Rahul Gandhi’s failed career as a politician. Congress won the 2017 State Assembly elections despite Narendra Modi and the Saffron aura spreading across the nation coupled with a strong existing alliance of Shiromani Akali Dal (led by Prakash Singh Badal) and BJP for past 10 years. It was evident that the BJP wave would rub off in Punjab yet again. However, the strange dynamics of Punjab where anti incumbency influences more than the developmental fundamentals in politics led to a Congress win under the war veteran and Congress stalwart Capt Amarinder Singh with a promise to wipe out the drug menace. Another important player who played a big role in Congress’s surprise win was Navjot Singh Sidhu (former Indian cricketer and a sports and comedy celebrity). His connect with the people of Punjab and his oratory skills gave the impetus that was required against the SAD-BJP alliance and that was the signal of the beginning of a new era for Congress via Punjab.
Fast forward to 2022, the year of assembly elections in Punjab, and there is a 3 way tussle between Congress, BJP & Punjab Lok Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) with the wind ready to blow in any of the 3 directions. 7 months back, majority of the voters in Punjab would have geared up for another government by Capt. Amarinder Singh and the tussle would not have been so hard as it is today. As of today, SAD is nowhere in the picture, Capt. Amarinder Singh is still in fray to be the Chief Minister of Punjab, but as part of the alliance between BJP and Punjab Lok Congress while Congress is hanging by tether hooks and AAP is making a strong attempt to expand its political presence beyond Delhi. What happened so drastically in past 8 months that the political landscape for the voters has changed from that of incumbency to confusion?
Firstly, Capt. Amarinder Singh resigned as the Chief Minister and leader of Punjab Congress after immense pressure from national leadership of Congress via Navjot Singh Sidhu owing to his inaccessibility and inability to ward off the drug menace. We have Charanjit Singh Channi leading Punjab as the Chief Minister today. He is the first Dalit CM of Punjab with Congress identifying the demographics of Punjab for the first time in an attempt to bag the majority votes. On the other hand, BJP is only getting stronger by the day and their marriage with Capt. Amarinder Singh only adds to the desired voters. There is no dearth of ardent followers of Capt. Amarinder Singh and he can sway the votes in the alliance’s favor.
The third leg of the tripod is Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party. There is no doubting on the developmental work and transition that AAP government has done in Delhi. The real question lies in its ability to scale pan India. AAP performed extremely well in Lok Sabah Elections in 2019 in Punjab with comedian Bhagwant Mann leading the charge. However, his issues with alcohol and public perception have attempted to foil AAP’s attempt to capture power in Punjab. The utter confusion or absence of clear direction for the assemble election point to an unstable tripod where no one of the parties offer the best way for the progress for Punjab, but their dream combination can build a state for the ages.
The Congress government provides a hope to end the drug menace and more active representation for the minorities in Punjab with Charanjit Singh Channi as the face for progress. However, the inherent instability in the past 8 months raises an eyebrow among the voters on the future landscape of Punjab with Congress.
BJP-Punjab Lok Congress provide an avenue to replicate the national model of Atmanirbhar Bharat combined with the aura and experience of Capt. Amarinder Singh, but the presence of a leader who steps down to national leadership instead of working for the people will possibly reflect in the votes on 10th March.
Finally, AAP provides the best possible hope for the citizens of Punjab for progress and a better tomorrow, but the skepticism on replication of Delhi Success model will always remain a question among the voters. There is folklore following of Bhagwant Mann, but everybody wants to see an Arvind Kejriwal type leader in Punjab. This is difficult to achieve, but Bhagwant Mann claims to come from the Kejriwal school of thinking.
Come 10th March and the verdict shall be out. After a long time, we are potentially headed for a fragmented assembly where each party will be eating into the other’s seats with no clear majority. AAP looks to be on track to be the party with maximum seats, but their inability to garner an alliance can tilt the final assembly in favor of Congress or BJP-Punjab Lok Congress. These 3 legs of the tripod of Punjab are lingering for support in search of balancing the state of Punjab and the tripod it has come to be in past 8 months. All we hope is for an alliance (Yes, an alliance) which unleashes Punjab to its glory and eliminates all the evil doings which has made it famous for all the Udta Punjab reasons.
