The Pre 2024 Litmus Test
Democracies are meant for the people and run by the people (or we can say representatives of the people of the country). India, the largest democracy in the world heads into 2024 with Lok Sabha elections to determine the next ruling party in power for the next 5 years. It would spell the beginning of an unprecedented 3rd term for the BJP led government or usher in a new era under the I.N.D.I.A alliance. While the balance is tilted towards Narendra Modi and his government to win an overwhelming majority, the sentiments in diverse regions of India can change the fortunes very quickly. The month of November is going to see yet another litmus test after the Karnataka elections when 5 states will go into assembly elections. The outcome of these elections may or may not have significant bearing but will give an indication of the direction in which the pulse of the nation is headed.
The states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, and Telangana will be going through assembly elections with BJP and Congress expected to fight it out in all of these states. The results out of these states will give the political parties confidence and things to ponder about heading into next year’s elections but also sets the tone for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in the largest democracy of the world. As the D-day for the assembly elections approach, let’s analyze how the different parties are expected to fare across these states.
1. Rajasthan
Ruling Party: Congress
While there has been immense infighting within Congress between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot, the two have united for the greater cause of the party and are looking strong to put up a good fight against BJP. Rajasthan is historically known for anti-incumbency, and this could mean a good win for BJP, but the tide seems fairly balanced for now and growing national voice against unemployment and economy would probably turn the results in favor of Congress (only slightly). It is likely that Congress will retain its power, but it will be a close fight.
2. Madhya Pradesh
Ruling Party: BJP
Madhya Pradesh is expected to not throw any surprises with BJP expected to win again. This can be attributed to the great work done with the public in the state coupled with lack of voice from Congress in Madhya Pradesh. The state has gone under the radar of the opposition, and it is likely that the incumbent government will continue its domination in the state.
3. Chattisgarh:
Ruling Party: Congress
Surprisingly, Chhattisgarh was carved out from Madhya Pradesh and the 2 states are governed by different parties. Chhattisgarh will likely fall prey to anti-incumbency with BJP taking over the spoils this election. Narendra Modi has made it a point to personally rally in the state even prior to the announcement of the election schedule. With renewed focus of BJP towards capturing back Congress held states, Chhattisgarh should be saffron led post the upcoming elections.
4. Telangana
Ruling Party: BRS (Bharat Rashtra Samithi)
Telangana is one of the few states which is dominated by strong regional players with no allegiances with Congress and BJP. With significant development in the state along with increased investments from companies like Google, the people of Telangana have seen an uptick in the government performance. BJP and Congress will emerge as side players while BRS should emerge victorious with a comfortable margin. The begging question is on who BRS will side with in Lok Sabha elections. Will it go the I.N.D.I.A way or NDA way?
5. Mizoram
Ruling Party: MNF (Mizo National Front)
Yet another state rules by a regional party but is an ally of BJP. If the elections were held 3 months back, this would have been an easy win for MNF-BJP alliance. The situation is completely different now owing to the chaos caused in Manipur. BJP’s inability to control the violence and lackadaisical attitude towards northeastern states may indicate a shift in voter’s preference towards ZPM (Zoram People’s movement) in alliance with other players.
So, the verdict for the litmus test indicates that there won’t be drastic changes in power except for Chhattisgarh and Mizoram, but the pulse of the nation can shift anyway depending on which player BRS joins hands with to influence the southern states and Congress’s ambition to tackle anti-incumbency could give a fresh breath to I.N.D.I.A alliance.
