The New Sena in Maharashtra
Regional political strongholds are a commonplace across India and breaching them is quite a task even for the ruling national party (BJP) in India. Be it the Trinamool Congress wave in West Bengal or the AAP wave in Delhi, BJP has struggled to move the political posts in some of these states. This week was another attempt by BJP to move the outposts in Maharashtra politics and surprisingly it succeeded owing to a shrewd strategy and an outlook which will potentially serve them well in the upcoming 2024 assemble elections in Maharashtra. There seems to be a new Sena brewing up in Maharashtra as we head into another season of assemble election 2 years later.
Over the course of past 10 days, Eknath Shinde, a Shiv Sena MLA was unreachable after the legislative council elections and a day later he was in Surat claiming the support of 40 MLAs out of 55 MLAs of Shiv Sena. Now, Shiv Sena blindsided BJP in the previous elections by forming an alliance with politically opposite NCP and Congress despite BJP having the largest number of seats. With Uddhav Thackeray at the helm, it seemed there was no stopping the Thackeray dynasty from ruling Maharashtra. However, things took a sudden turn over the last few weeks of June. While the backroom strategy at play was definitely hinting towards a coup by BJP, but an unexpected turn of events happened when Eknath Shinde was announced as the chief minister instead of the erstwhile Devendra Fadnavis. Such an act was on unexpected lines by BJP. However, this was an indication of the new Shiv Sena and political landscape in Maharashtra. There could be several reasons why this masterstroke was played by BJP even to belittle their own charismatic regional leader, but some reasoning could be on the following lines.
1. Shiv Sena without Thackeray is just another party: Shiv Sena is a party that was built by Bal Thackeray and spells his legacy amongst all its members. There was no way that one could see beyond the Thackeray family to lead Shiv Sena. By handing over Maharashtra’s throne to Eknath Shinde with him still being associated with Shiv Sena, the world is being indicated that Shiv Sena is more than the Thackerays. This will strengthen BJP’s base to overpower them in future.
2. Mission 2024 domination: While Maharashtra may be the richest state and also house the financial capital, the reality is that the people of Maharashtra are not very happy with the progress made in terms of overall development. Taking over the state midway through turbulent times would have given the public another reason to not vote for BJP. By putting Eknath Shinde in the centre, BJP can play its cards for passing the blame game to the Shiv Sena and project itself as the sole harbinger of prosperity and development in 2024 elections. It would direct people to vote for them instead of relying on coalitions to rule the state.
3. Changing Public’s perception: Owing to its majority across India, BJP is often viewed as forcing hands to take control of a state whenever an opportunity arises. Be it in Uttarakhand or even the failed attempt at Rajasthan. Public often perceives BJP to be a party that just wants to rule over India democratically or undemocratically. By taking the backseat in Maharashtra, BJP is also trying to change its public perception so that people view it as a party which aids in bringing the change rather than forcing their hand. While the reality could be different, but this act of selflessness by BJP can go a long way in securing a 3rd term at the centre and establish an overwhelming majority in Maharashtra as well.
Only time will tell whether the Eknath Shinde experiment pays off or not. However, one needs to bear in mind that establishing a new Sena in Maharashtra without the Thackerays is an arduous task. Uddhav Thackeray and team may be down, but they are not out. The shrewd politics played across generations is imbibed in their blood and it will still not be an easy path for BJP in 2024 Assembly elections. Let us not forget what happened in 2020, when the same party was underestimated to come to power and still went on to form the government despite not having the largest number of seats. To add fuel to the fire, Sharad Pawar’s evergreen presence in the backroom of Shiv Sena alliance can still turn the tide in the favor of the Thackerays and make sure the new Sena uprising may fail while beholding the tiger of Shiv Sena.
