The Indo Canada Fallout
Canada is often associated as a harbor for a large Indian diaspora historically. It houses over a million Indians who are going about their business in Canada. This indicates that the relations between the 2 countries may be very good which allows immigration processes to be very smooth and easy to enter Canada. The week of 18th September indicated a different picture altogether pointing to a tiff between Indian and Canadian governments. Let’s understand what really transpired.
Context
Earlier this week, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau indicated that Indian government was potentially behind the murder of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar. This, in turn drew sharp refusal and instigated actions from India leading to temporary suspension of visa services.
Who is Hardeep Sing Nijjar?
Hardeep Singh Nijjar was a Sikh leader who was murdered back in June and was viewed as a staunch supporter of the Khalistan. He is also on the list of members considered as a national threat to India. His murder caused utmost rage in Canada, and it is believed, after due investigation by Canadian government that state agencies were involved in the dreadful act.
How is the world reacting to it?
The Western states are playing the ball very carefully owing to continuing partnership with India and support for India diaspora and looking at the credibility of Justin Trudeau’s claims which could really change the world dynamics. US president Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have condemned such a heinous attack. On the other hand, Joe Biden is also set to be a chief guest for India’s Republic Day next year.
Who is right and who is wrong?
In such a situation, it is very tough to say whose claims are correct and whose are wrong. On one hand, Canada claims involvement of Indian government in murder of their citizen. On the other hand, Indian government has accused Canada of harboring terrorists. There is a lot of data and evidence required to support any of the claims. While Justin Trudeau can go ahead and release the evidence to the world to support his claim, he also runs the risk of a complete diplomatic fallout which could severe relations with BRICS nations as well if the claims are not well supported. At the same time, Indian government’s stop gap reaction to suspend visa services indicates a hasty decision without backing their claims or denying Canada’s claims with complete proof. Hasty decisions could send the wrong signal without being the intent. Both countries are walking on a treacherous and slippery path and the next steps will be very critical in defining the pathway of their diplomatic relations but also the western world order.
What could potentially happen?
Best Case: Both the countries sit behind closed doors and resolve the matter and make a joint statement acknowledging the correct claims and rejecting the false claims. This will lead to some loss of face for the nations, but it will lead to a closure of the diplomatic tension and allow everyone to proceed status quo without a severe impact on trade, diplomacies, and education sector.
Worst Case: Things could very quickly get escalated to United Nations owing to strong claims made by Justin Trudeau. A spotlight from United Nations will only hamper the relations even further and lead to a thorough investigation. The veracity of information and due perpetuator will be punished but there is no guarantee that trade relations, education and Indian diaspora will be the way it is in western worlds.
Only time will tell how this fallout pans out. Till then, all we can hope is the justice prevails for the righteous and the issue at hand gets resolved in the most amicable manner.
