The Gujarati Twist: BJP or AAP?
Indian politics has always been one that has generated interest owing to the diverse culture and demographics involved. In any 5-year cycle of Lok Sabah elections, the 2 years prior to the election year become even more interesting as parties attempt to win State Assemble elections with an eye on the Lok Sabha elections that will go on to elect the new prime minister of India. The month of December is seeing an election in the state which saw the rise of our prime minister Narendra Modi. Yes, it is Gujarat elections time and this time it is neither a straightforward path for BJP nor a 2 way battle between BJP and Congress. We have a new entrant who could be the recipe for all the twists that can potentially come in the Gujarat Assembly election. It is none other than Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Arvin Kejriwal and his army are now targeting to capture the place which can potentially form the basis of the trend for Lok Sabha Elections in 2024.
AAP has been weaving magic by winning handsomely in Punjab and serving a 2nd term in Delhi. This could indicate that they are on a roll, and they would be a dangerous proposition in Gujarat as well. The optics of Assembly elections vary greatly across India and Gujarat presents an altogether different frontier which has been difficult to capture from BJP even when they were in opposition at the center. While we will come to know about the victors on 8th December, when the results of the elections are announced, there is highly likely to be a small twist which could pave the way for future of Indian politics 5–10 years later. A lot of people across India may be banking on AAP to spring a surprise, but the story will mostly be different and on expected lines in Gujarat with BJP leading the way. Despite the usual anti-incumbency wave, Gujarat is unlikely to see such surprises in terms of the ruling party.
1. BJP Stronghold: Gujarat is a state where BJP has been in power for 7 consecutive terms. It is a historically stronghold for BJP with extremely strong support among the RSS cadres and the bhaktas of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. Deterring the public with AAP’s Delhi and Punjab governance model strategy will not be an easy task. People in Gujarat have benefited from the BJP government, and it is highly unlikely that they would switch their votes. Gujarat is such a stronghold for BJP that even the 2002 riots could not change the result for the government in power.
2. Anti-incumbency is not the Gujarati flavor: Anti-incumbency has been something which is prominent across politics, but Gujarat is a different battleground. The development and transformation that Gujarat has seen over years is paramount to lack of anti-incumbency in the state. People of Gujarat believe in the government in power and can see the results that have been generated in the state. Gujarat is on an economic boom with financial hubs being set up there, largest cricket stadium being built and huge central support coming in all the way. This eliminates any chance of anti-incumbency as the people are satisfied with the government. AAP’s model focuses heavily on development and people’s satisfaction but that is already in place in Gujarat.
3. An Eye for Lok Sabha Elections and upcoming states: 2024 Lok Sabha elections are not far away and with Uttar Pradesh conquered, BJP has an eye on retaining Gujarat and wresting control in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan which are Congress led states. Lok Sabha elections rely heavily on the wave of political wins and Gujarat will be a starting point which has led BJP to focus heavily and invest a lot of their energies on ensuring that there are no twists, and they retain their ground in the assembly elections. The win will also act as a booster for winning in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh which will potentially pave the way for a 3rd term for Narendra Modi as the prime minister.
All this indicates a win for BJP, but the real twist will potentially come in the seat and vote share which AAP will go on capture. AAP will mostly end up as the opposition part with a 2nd position in the elections eating up into the 77 seats that Congress had won in the last elections. This will be a huge turn of events and will potentially pave the way for AAP to truly become a national party and be a potential contender in 2029 Lok Sabha Elections as well. Till then, I think we can safely enjoy the twists that will come on 8th December and rejoice or mull at yet another BJP victory in what has become a common thing in Indian politics now.
