The Curious Case of Indian Vote bank
2 months back, a lot of us were talking abut the virtual semifinal in the Indian political arena with 5 states going to elections. The results of these elections would pave the way for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Come vote counting day and the verdict is very clearly out. BJP is all set for a mammoth win in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections and the I.N.D.I.A alliance has a lot of questions to answer. The assembly elections result in 4 states today indicated the sheer domination that BJP has in the Hindu heartlands. The 4 states for which the results came out today were Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana. BJP went on to win a majority in 3 of the 4 states capturing power in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. On the other hand, Congress sprung a surprise by winning in Telangana.
The results indicate a saffron wave (BJP) across India, but the last 2 state assembly elections also pose a curious question in terms of the paradigm shift of the voters and the party focus. Today, majority of the western, northern, and eastern states are governed by BJP or regional parties who end up having some affiliation with BJP. The southern part of India reflects a completely different story. Karnataka and now, Telangana are all set to be governed by Congress while Tamil Nadu and Kerala are ruled by parties not having very friendly ties with BJP. In the midst of the saffron wave there is a begging question on how the regions are going to affect the vote bank politics in the Lok Sabha elections and is BJP’s lack of presence in South India a cause of concern?
The southern states comprise 119 seats out of 543 seats for which elections are contested. That is not a sizeable portion but a portion of interest for any party. However, the current rule in these states still does not indicate that BJP will struggle its way in the Lok Sabha elections. BJP will make use of the curious case of vote bank politics to secure its domination for a third consecutive term.
1. Unclenched rule in Hindu heartland: BJP has an uncontested rule in Hindi heartland states of India like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, etc. This domination ensures that BJP can count on the support of over 35–45% of the Lok Sabha seats despite having a weak position in southern states.
2. Targeted seats in weak states: State Assembly elections are about winning maximum constituencies in a state to win power. Lok Sabha is about winning maximum constituencies across the country. BJP has a knack of understanding which seats to target and get sure shot wins in some constituencies in the states where it still does not call the shots. Something is always better than nothing and it only adds to the 35–45% seats they are guaranteed to win.
3. Power of alliance: While BJP leads a one-way battle, it often confides in regional parties to form alliances and Lok Sabha elections are the arena where they will join hands with regional parties to gain the seats in areas where regional parties have a stronghold. States like Bihar, Orissa, Northeastern states and Tamil Nadu and Kerala will all come under scanner for BJP to ensure they have a resounding success like the lats 2 elections.
The vote bank politics is indeed one to raise curiosity, but the litmus test in these 4 states indicate that BJP has its preparations on in full swing and they will be aware of ensuring that there are no major slip ups in southern states to ensure that I.N.D.I.A alliance does not end up cashing on their tiny success. Till then, 2024 is heading the Modi way.
