The Amethi — Rae Bareli Squabble
ok Sabha elections are underway in India and all parties are campaigning with full gusto to ensure that they form the government. 2024 elections have often been mentioned as the elections which will define Narendra Modi’s legacy in Indian history with BJP expected to retain power for the third consecutive term. Amid the hectic 40 days, there is something else that has captured the imagination of the political analysts and the followers of elections. The Amethi and Rae Bareli constituencies have ended up causing a lot of stir among political parties while the elections are underway.
Lok Sabha elections have entered their 2nd phase, but no constituency has stolen the limelight as Amethi and Rae Bareli have. For the ardent followers of Indian politics, these constituencies are considered the Gandhi bastions and have been won by them until Rahul Gandhi was defeated by Smriti Irani in the last election. This election has served up a feast for these constituencies as the candidates for both these constituencies have still not been decided. The frontrunners (yes, the frontrunners) are the Gandhi family, namely Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, but no formal announcement has been made.
On one hand, parties are preparing to fight elections, there is one party which is still squabbling over who to contest because of historical importance or shall I say dynastical importance. Till 2019, Rae Bareli was Sonia Gandhi’s seat to contest, and Rahul Gandhi would contest from Amethi. Fast forward to 5 years later, Sonia Gandhi has shifted to Rajya Sabha and Rahul Gandhi is not even assured of a win and plays it safe by contesting from Wayanad. This time around, there is uncertainty over who will confirm, and no names have been confirmed despite the elections being just a few weeks away. It is speculated that Rahul Gandhi will now contest from Amethi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra from Rae Bareli, but the squabble is a clear indication of the priorities and approach a party is taking in the elections. The squabble for these 2 constituencies indicates the following things which will ensure that BJP does not get a surprise defeat.
1. Dynasty rules logic: The absence of a clear contender for the seats in Amethi and Rae Bareli indicate that dynasty rules logic within the party. Common sense would indicate not giving the Amethi seat to Rahul Gandhi as he lost against the incumbent Smriti Irani, but dynasty will always overrule the ongoing logical decisions of the I.N.D.I.A alliance.
2. No future vision: An attempt to bring someone into the political sphere who has stayed away from it for ages and has been associated with controversy indicates that the party is not concerned about the future vision and just wants to fill up the numbers. BJP could easily sway the votes in their favor by opposing such a strategy irrespective of the manifestos of the parties.
3. Strategy gone for a toss: All the I.N.D.I.A alliance strategies of fielding the best possible candidates as part of seat sharing arrangement has gone for a toss with no clear direction on who to send in such constituencies to tackle the BJP firepower.
The squabble will settle soon as the elections for these areas draw closer, but the hype around naming of candidates indicates that BJP is well on way for a 400-seat mark as they seem settled on their candidates and are focusing on manifesto-based politics along with aggressive campaigning.
