Exit Polls = Election Result?
June 4 is going to be a landmark day in India as the results of the elections in the largest democracy in the world, India is declared. Elections are always interesting as you never know which way the vote will swing. However, this time around an unprecedented third term for NDA alliance is expected with Narendra Modi expected to carry on for his 3rd consecutive term as the Prime Minister of India. One thing which is often followed closely by the public prior to the results are the exit polls.
What are Exit Polls?
Exit Polls are a mechanism which multiple news channels and broadcasters advocate to predict the results of the election based on voter turnout, pulse of the voters and other factors. In simple words, it is a human version of machine learning to forecast the results. Very election, exit polls come out to predict the results and majority of the time they are close to reality. This process has often called out whether exit polls are really a believable mechanism or just another stunt by media houses. Historical data will suggest that they can often be a true reflection of the results, but the discrepancies between actual results and exit polls are also huge in some instances calling out for doubts on the process used to determine the outcome of exit polls.
Some examples where exit polls have totally deflected from reality come as recent as the Karnataka elections and as far back as 2004 Lok Sabha elections. The recent Karnataka Assembly elections saw exit polls deviating from the actual results for Indian National Congress by over 50% seats laying rest to claim that BJP would form the government. The result was that Congress formed a government with overwhelming majority.
Another case in point is the 2004 Lok Sabha election where BJP led NDA alliance was expected to come back for another term and exit polls had projected 250+ seats for NDA. The real result reflected a different story altogether. Congress led UPA alliance formed the government with overwhelming majority.
2 examples from a large dataset is not a sufficient point to prove that exit polls are never a true reflection of the poll results, but there are factors which influence such a line of thought.
1. Media Houses are controlled: it is a known fact that media houses in India are not independently run. They have backing from political powers which are often hidden. To amplify their agenda, the media houses can end up showing what the political powers want them to. This results in exit polls favoring one party over another on a regular basis.
2. One doesn’t know the voters: Voters are common man and no amount of secondary analysis or data backed inferences can indicate which way the tide is turning in terms of votes. Any prediction by an agency is just a shot in the dark and understanding human psychology and the process of voter turnout and voting mindset is a place which only the voter will understand.
3. EVM is a mystery: the onset of electronic voting machines has indicated that results can be counted faster and contacts with the election commission can reveal the results. The entire EVM and its aura is a mystery, and no exit poll agent can demystify it to bring forth a true reflection of the results to come.
In a nutshell, exit polls are just a line of thinking by some agents of the media and should never be taken seriously till the results are final. The exit polls for 2024 show a clear mandate for BJP led NDA and rightly so, but 4th June could still throw a surprise that exit polls backed by data and historical references can never predict.
