2024 Indian Lok Saba Elections: A Foregone Conclusion?
Elections in India always bring a sense of excitement owing to myriad of cultures and ideologies that are present in different states. We would look at states being dominated by regionals players other than national parties with each of them standing as a symbol of hope for the respective states. This brought a sense of inquisitiveness and uncertainty in the Lok Sabha elections that happen every 5 years. The recently concluded assembly elections in Goa, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Manipur and Uttarakhand paint a completely different picture and make people question whether the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are already painted in saffron.
To give a recent account, BJP dominated the assemble elections in 2022 with majority wins in 4 out of the 5 states. This spells the apparent doomsday for Indian National Congress (which was spelt way back in 2014 itself) and erases any hope for a strong opposition in the national politics. Gone are the days, when assembly elections would not have a strong bearing in the Lok Sabha elections. People have stopped having hope of the 2004 shocker that put Dr. Manmohan Singh at the helm as the Prime Minister of India owing to a dramatic win of the United Progressive Alliance led by Congress. What has drastically changed in the last 8 years that is turning India into a landscape dominated by one party with a very weak opposition (if at all it exists) ?
There are 3 major factors that are pointing to an ever-increasing domination of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in India despite the presence of historical parties like Congress.
1. Charismatic and Manipulative Leader: Narendra Modi not only exudes confidence with his oratory skills and voter following. His strategies to manipulate the public in the event of any distress in India or anything that shows the government in bad light is reflective of the country being identified as being led by Narendra Modi and not being led by BJP. His rallies in any part of the country simply turn the tide in favour of BJP irrespective of the strength of the opposition or the weakness of the BJP candidate from the area. Narendra Modi is the man with the golden touch mixed with manipulation and oratory skills that drive the public towards voting for him everywhere.
2. End of Dynasty Politics and internal rifts: The second largest part in India, Indian National Congress is still being led by the Gandhi dynasty despite an ailing Sonia Gandhi and a highly experienced incapable leader of the masses, Rahul Gandhi, to take them out of the rut. The inability to look outside the dynasty to hand over the reins is leading to a serve decline for the Congress across all states and nationally as well
3. Absence of a united opposition: Any country thrives when there is an opposition to oppose the moves by the incumbent government and work for the betterment of the masses. India, at present, does not have a dominating opposition owing to the decline of Congress. The prospect of a United opposition with regional players looks bleak as well owing to differing ideologies and personal aspirations amongst the leaders of these parties. Parties like Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have fought BJP valiantly in Delhi and Punjab but imagine a startup overpowering the huge market cap of Apple or a Microsoft. AAP is too small at a national level to challenge BJP everywhere.
Do these 3 factors indicate that we should be seeing more saffron flags in the coming decade?
All hope is not lost. All that is needed to be foregone is ego amongst leaders and open their eyes to the surroundings. BJP juggernaut is not too strong to dominate everywhere. AAP has displayed chinks in BJP’s armor. It is very important that the following 2 things happen to have a real sense of competition in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections and Assemble Elections.
1. Opposition leaders across different states should shunt their ego and identify a leader amongst themselves who can be the face of a united opposition and challenge BJP together in every state and nationally. Regional player should tie up to eat into the vote share of BJP to make them panic and make the public realise that there are alternatives to the existing government. At present, 2 strong leaders can carry forward the potential United Front in all the upcoming elections by supporting other regional players and influencing the Lok Sabha elections by dominating every region with their regional parties. Naveen Patnaik and Mamata Banerjee have the potential to challenge Narendra Modi with their developmental politics and people skills to give BJP a stiff competition and make them sweat.
2. Congress needs a change of guard by infusing youth and experience and identifying a strong leader like Sachin Pilot to lead the party instead of the Gandhi family to drive a fresh energy and make public realise that Congress goes beyond the Gandhi Family. Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi need to be selfless and give up their post to infuse the missing magic that brought Congress to power in 2004 and 2009.
Additionally, public, and other opposition parties should take cue from Delhi and Punjab to understand the definition of developmental politics and realise that a common man can do wonders in the administration. Arvind Kejriwal has proved that nothing is impossible and has challenged long standing governments in Delhi and Punjab and come out with flying colors.
2024 is heading for another overwhelming majority for BJP, but all is not lost and some tweaks in the Indian political landscape can lead to a healthy election and betterment for the Indian Public and a potentially fragmented parliament where BJP would be starved of the Lok Sabha seats to bring itself back to power.
